Estimates vary regarding the percentage of global population that go hungry every night, especially in African, Asian and South American continents. Probably it may be fair to presume that at least one third of the population are suffering from food shortage either due to inaccessibility or unavailability. There are many field studies which go to support the above assumption. The prices of staple grains like rice wheat and corn have an important bearing on the peace on this planet and unrest becomes a norm when these prices rice uncontrollably due to many reasons. While natural causes like drought and flood cannot be controlled or predicted, diversion of food for non -food purpose like bio-fuels is definitely avoidable to reduce the impact of shortage on international prices of food grains. The issue of food riots assumes added significance in the light of unexpected drought in the US creating supply shortages for grains like corn. It is in this context that recent attempts to predict riots in some of the undeveloped, under developed and developing countries on the basis of price movements in the global market need to be appreciated. Here is an expose on this interesting theory that seems to be helpful in anticipating food riots and taking preventive action to reduce such incidences in the world.
"The researchers define the riot danger zone in relation to the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the monthly change in international prices for a basket of cereals, dairy, meat, sugars and oil/fats. Riots become more likely, their model showed, when the index goes above 210. The index has been hovering above that "disruption threshold" since July, pushed upward by the drought in the U.S., the world's biggest exporter of corn and wheat. "What happened was that food prices went up exactly as predicted," Bar-Yam says. Wheat is now at $9 per bushel — higher than the high of $8.94 hit in February 2011, when the Arab Spring was in full swing. Corn is at $7.56 a bushel, close to the $7.65 highs of 2007-2008 — though it spiked well above $8 a bushel this summer. The Mideast is particularly sensitive to wheat prices; it imports most of its wheat, which is a major staple for the region. While the drought is causing the current spike in food prices, prices have also been on a steady, long-term trajectory upward. So what's behind that trend? NECSI's model has fingered two key suspects: speculation and the conversion of corn to ethanol. (More on that later.) Even without the drought, Bar-Yam says, food prices were headed toward the riot zone by early next year. The institute's work isn't without critics. Blogging at G-Feed, economist Dave Lobell notes that NECSI's papers aren't peer-reviewed — they are simply released publicly. "But in the case of NECSI, I think they have come up with a pretty satisfying solution — making testable predictions about the next year," Lobell writes.
How far this theory will hold good in future is not sure though there is a good possibility that such predictions can enable the governments in the third world countries to be prepared to handle the situation more effectively, if and they arise. The world is increasingly becoming a global village with porous borders and no country can remain isolated from events taking place in another country related to essential materials like food. It must be realized that very few countries are self sufficient in food and inter dependency is the corner stone of WTO trade regimes and policies equitable to all. Quest for land to expand food production is taking some rich countries to buy out or lease out vast stretches of cultivable land from countries having such lands without being able to raise productivity any where near to the levels achieved in technologically powerful countries. This is a sign that food will remain the single most critical factor that will decide whether peace will prevail in this world in the coming years.
V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com
"The researchers define the riot danger zone in relation to the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the monthly change in international prices for a basket of cereals, dairy, meat, sugars and oil/fats. Riots become more likely, their model showed, when the index goes above 210. The index has been hovering above that "disruption threshold" since July, pushed upward by the drought in the U.S., the world's biggest exporter of corn and wheat. "What happened was that food prices went up exactly as predicted," Bar-Yam says. Wheat is now at $9 per bushel — higher than the high of $8.94 hit in February 2011, when the Arab Spring was in full swing. Corn is at $7.56 a bushel, close to the $7.65 highs of 2007-2008 — though it spiked well above $8 a bushel this summer. The Mideast is particularly sensitive to wheat prices; it imports most of its wheat, which is a major staple for the region. While the drought is causing the current spike in food prices, prices have also been on a steady, long-term trajectory upward. So what's behind that trend? NECSI's model has fingered two key suspects: speculation and the conversion of corn to ethanol. (More on that later.) Even without the drought, Bar-Yam says, food prices were headed toward the riot zone by early next year. The institute's work isn't without critics. Blogging at G-Feed, economist Dave Lobell notes that NECSI's papers aren't peer-reviewed — they are simply released publicly. "But in the case of NECSI, I think they have come up with a pretty satisfying solution — making testable predictions about the next year," Lobell writes.
How far this theory will hold good in future is not sure though there is a good possibility that such predictions can enable the governments in the third world countries to be prepared to handle the situation more effectively, if and they arise. The world is increasingly becoming a global village with porous borders and no country can remain isolated from events taking place in another country related to essential materials like food. It must be realized that very few countries are self sufficient in food and inter dependency is the corner stone of WTO trade regimes and policies equitable to all. Quest for land to expand food production is taking some rich countries to buy out or lease out vast stretches of cultivable land from countries having such lands without being able to raise productivity any where near to the levels achieved in technologically powerful countries. This is a sign that food will remain the single most critical factor that will decide whether peace will prevail in this world in the coming years.
V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com
